Construction starts remain resilient; economic conditions favor supply absorption
SANTA BARBARA, Calif., Jan. 5, 2026 – Continued resilience in new construction starts has prompted Yardi® Matrix to increase its forecast for U.S. multifamily completions in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
High-supply markets are seeing steady new development while smaller markets are making up for their moderate supply growth in the last market cycle. Those factors, along with an economic environment that’s generally supportive for multifamily, a decline in the under-construction pipeline in Q4 2025 and sluggish existing home sales, “should support rental rates and new supply absorption” in 2026, according to a new Yardi Matrix multifamily supply forecast.
Yardi Matrix increased its forecast for completions in 2026 by 6.4%, with the 2027 forecast jumping by 8.1% and the 2028 forecast rising 8.9%. More than 1.3 million units of market rate, partially affordable, fully affordable, senior and single family rental housing are projected to be delivered in that timespan.
With affordable and partially affordable properties comprising an increasingly larger portion of the current under-construction inventory, market rate supply as a percentage of total supply is expected to decline by 2028.
See the latest forecast, under construction pipeline, construction starts and more in the Yardi Matrix Q1 2026 Multifamily Supply Forecast.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, single-family rentals/ build to rent, affordable housing, student housing, self storage, office, industrial, retail and vacant land property types. Email [email protected], call (480) 663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
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