March exhibits a strong short-term performance, yet is still humbled by historical data.
Highlights:
- The average U.S. advertised asking rent increased 0.1% year-over-year to $1,750 in March.
- Monthly gains swept across the nation, with all but 3 of the Matrix top 30 markets posting advertised rent growth.
- Geopolitics, artificial intelligence and demographics will play a significant role in future commercial real estate demand.
- SFR-BTR average advertised rents declined 0.5% year-over-year to $2,202 in March.
Annual growth leaves room for improvement
The national multifamily average advertised asking rent gained $5, climbing 0.1% to $1,750 year-over-year in March. While the growth rate was positive, the pace for this month was the slowest since 2012. For reference, rents grew on average 3.6% each March between 2012 and 2019. Gateway and Midwest metros recorded the highest increases, with New York City (4.5% year-over-year) in the lead, followed by San Francisco (3.9%), Chicago (3.4%), the Twin Cities (2.5%) and Kansas City (2.3%). Supply-abundant markets continued posting negative growth, such as Austin (-4.1%), Denver (-3.5%), Tampa (-3.4%), Phoenix (-3.2%) and Orlando (-1.8%).
Short-term rental changes were positive across an overwhelming majority of Matrix’s top 30 markets, with just 3 metros recording negative results, such as Seattle (-0.2% month-over-month), Raleigh and New Jersey (-0.1% each). Nationally, advertised rents ticked up 0.3%, though several coastal and Midwest metros were way ahead of that benchmark, including New York (1.0%), Indianapolis, San Francisco and Philadelphia (0.8% each). Of note is the performance of several supply-heavy Sun Belt markets, including Austin (0.9%) and Charlotte (0.7%), which offer them some welcome relief amid a weak annual showing.
The national average occupancy rate clocked in at 94.3% in February, representing a 0.4% decline year-over-year. The gap between the highest- and lowest-performing markets was wide, between 5% and 6%. Moreover, just Atlanta and San Francisco posted yearly gains, both tied at 0.2%. Northeast markets, such as New York (98.2%) and New Jersey (96.7%), were the tightest, while Texas metros were among the weakest, including Houston (91.8%) and Austin (92.0%).
A glimpse at future demand drivers
Geopolitics, artificial intelligence and shifting demographics may take their toll on commercial real estate demand. Short-term, inflation may rise on account of price increases across energy, fertilizer and petrochemicals as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, while long-term, the shift of the U.S. economy from consumer-driven to AI-investment driven may displace or enhance labor. Additionally, the economy already presents a K-shape feature with spending concentrated on the upper third of earners, while lower-income households struggle with inflation and social spending cuts. All these factors could have a disparate effect on demand based on the property segment and region.
The single-family build-to-rent rates rose $5 to $2,202 in March, down 0.5% year-over-year. Occupancy was also down 0.5%, with the figure clocking in at 94.5% in February. Meanwhile, the housing bill that advances through Congress with the goal of making housing more affordable might have the opposite effect. Requiring developers to sell BTR homes seven years after completion might prohibit new projects from taking shape, reducing the housing supply by approximately 72,000 units per year, according to several studies.
Read the full Yardi Matrix Multifamily National Market Report: March 2026.
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