Data over 6 months points to gradual reversal of slowdown through the early 2030s
SANTA BARBARA, Calif., Aug. 5, 2026 – After analyzing six months of confirmed leasing data, Yardi® Matrix forecasts modest growth in U.S. multifamily market rents for 2026.
Data summarized in a new special report points to rent growth of 1.4% for the year, close to the 1% year-over-year growth recorded through mid-2026 and the slowest pace in a forecast that projects 3.5% annual growth in the early 2030s.
While the forecast represents significant deceleration from the 2.6% pace seen in 2024, “it is a slowdown, not a decline,” the new report says, as the 2025-26 trough “is shallower and a bit later than it appeared in the prior forecast vintage.” That is because data collected since the previous special report in February “showed a slightly more resilient market than the older projection assumed.”
Rent growth in markets that absorbed the heaviest wave of new apartment construction over the past few years, such as Austin, Texas; the Southwest Florida coast; Phoenix; Asheville, N.C.; and San Antonio, will be in negative territory this year. Meanwhile, markets with tighter supply and steadier demand, including Honolulu, Scranton-Wilkes-Barre in Pennsylvania and South Bend, Ind., are forecast to grow 5-6% in 2026.
Get details on supply, demand and the macroeconomic environment in the Yardi Matrix Multifamily Rent Forecast Update for July 2026.
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