A Lengthy Recovery Projected for the Metro
New York City, a global nexus of finance, culture and entertainment, had been the scene of sustained economic expansion over the past decade—until the pandemic hampered the city’s growth spurt. The impacts of COVID-19 are expected to have lasting implications—Moody’s Analytics predicts the economic hardship will stretch well into 2025. Lockdown measures, widespread job losses and the exodus of some 300,000 residents from the city—beginning last March—has left a mark on multifamily fundamentals. Manhattan rents were down 1.6% to $3,758 on a trailing three-month basis as of November, but still well above the $1,465 U.S. average.
As of October, unemployment stood at 13.2% in New York City, down 70 basis points from September but almost double the October national rate. More than 1 million New Yorkers were unemployed as of late October, with local businesses severely hit. As of mid-November, small-business revenue in Manhattan declined 68%, according to an analysis by New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer.
Manhattan had 5,915 units underway as of November, with 94% of those aimed at high-income renters. The bulk of the pipeline (81%) is expected to deliver over the next two years. Some $629 million traded in 2020 through November, for a 77% drop compared to the same interval in 2019. The decline pushed 2020’s sales volume, as of November, below the decade’s low point of 2010 ($790 million).
Read the full Matrix Multifamily Manhattan Report-Winter 2021