Read the latest Yardi Matrix Affordable Housing Market Report.
Roughly $10.5 billion in affordable debt is due through 2027, while the volume more than doubles to $21.7 billion by 2030, according to the latest Yardi Matrix report
Report Highlights:
- About 26,000 fully affordable properties back a total of $116.1 billion in debt.
- Private entities own 75.3% of these assets.
- Some $10.5 billion in affordable loans are due by 2027.
- Commercial banks hold 69.1% of the short-term maturing notes.
Banks and large metros, the drivers of affordable housing finance dynamics
Yardi Matrix’s database encompasses 26,000 fully affordable properties serving as collateral for a total of $116.1 billion in debt. Breaking down the loans by source shows commercial banks holding $46 billion or 39.4% of the total. Government entities such as HUD, local administrations and single-asset Fannie Mae loans add up to $37 billion (32.2%), while CMBS notes—including Freddie Mac pooled securitizations—reach $29 billion (25.0%). Life companies, debt funds, credit unions and other private sources account for $3.9 billion or 3.3%.
By 2027, roughly $10.5 billion in affordable housing loans are due to mature, while the figure jumps to $21.7 billion by 2030. Commercial banks make up a disproportionate amount of the debt maturing in 3 years—69.1%—on account on them being the main provider of construction notes. However, the index falls to 54.3% by the end of 2029. Through the end of the decade, CMBS and Freddie loans comprise 31.2% of the total affordable debt, while government lenders constitute 9.6%.
Regarding proprietorship of the communities backing the total debt of $116.1 billion, private owners represent 75.3%, while non-governmental organizations clock in at 15.6%. Public housing authorities and REITs account for 5.9% and 3.2%, respectively. Rounding up the ownership are institutional investors, public-private partnerships and merchant builders, which amount to less than 1% combined.
Geographically, most of the debt—about 40%—is clustered around properties in the top 10 metros. These include San Francisco ($6.8 billion), Los Angeles ($5.8 billion), Washington, D.C. ($5.5 billion), Miami ($4.9 billion), Seattle ($4.2 billion), Denver and Dallas ($4.1 billion each). Through 2029, metros such as Houston, Orlando, Sacramento, San Diego and Austin make the list as well, denoting healthy affordable development in California, Texas and Florida.
Affordable financing stability to be placed under the strain of policy shifts
Increases in the maximum allowable rents combined with a high rate of collections resulted in a stable affordable property performance. This led to a sturdy affordable lending market, characterized by longer maturities and lower rates compared to the market-rate counterpart.
Though stable, the affordable market may face headwinds spurred by shifts in government policies and initiatives. For instance, the current administration’s proposal to turn federal funding for renter subsidies into block grants could affect cash flow at affordable properties where tenants benefit from these allotments. Additional issues could arise from HUD’s budget cuts, which may impact affordable development and maintenance.
Read the full Yardi Matrix Affordable Housing Market Report: May 2025.
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