Market analysis projects modest advertised rent growth, but sector’s health depends on job creation and consumer confidence
SANTA BARBARA, CALIF., Dec. 18, 2025 – As the U.S. multifamily market emerges from 2025, a new Yardi® Matrix market analysis examines how conditions that have moderated rent growth might abate in the new year.
Yardi Matrix anticipates that advertised rent growth will grow by a modest 1.2% in 2026, fueled by rising department demand, absorption of excess supply and a sharp drop in apartment starts. “We expect a continuation of the regional trend” of moderate growth in low-supply Northeast and Midwest markets, along with strong demand and supply growth in Sun Belt and Mountain West markets,” Yardi Matrix experts say.
The economy poses the biggest unknown to multifamily market prospects in 2026, as employment, interest rates, artificial intelligence, immigration policy and other factors cast a swirl of uncertainty around consumers and businesses. “Job creation and consumer confidence must improve for multifamily demand to return to robust levels,” according to Yardi Matrix.
On the investment front, multifamily has abundant capital for acquisitions, making the momentum of transaction activity from the second half of 2025 likely to continue next year. “Banks are returning to construction lending, while other types of lenders such as the GSEs [government-sponsored enterprises] … are going full bore,” Yardi Matrix notes.
Get more insights into how supply and demand, the economy, capital market trends and other forces will shape 2026 in the Yardi Matrix U.S. Multifamily Outlook for winter 2026.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, single-family rentals/ build to rent, affordable housing, student housing, self storage, office, industrial, retail and vacant land property types. Email [email protected], call (480) 663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
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