Market heads into fourth quarter on firmer footing as challenges loom
SANTA BARBARA, Calif., Oct. 7, 2026 – Weathering a $1 month-over-month decrease in the average advertised rent, the U.S. multifamily sector emerged from September with its first Q3 increase in four years, according to new data released by Yardi® Matrix.
The market’s 0.3% quarterly gain and 1.4% year-to-date increase through September indicate that “fundamentals may be stabilizing after several years of supply-driven weakness,” a new national report from Yardi Matrix states.
“Improving market breadth, slowing supply growth and resilient occupancy suggest multifamily is entering the fourth quarter on firmer footing.”
Gateway and Midwest markets recorded the highest year-over-year rent growth in September, led by San Francisco, New York City, Chicago, Kansas City, Mo., and Detroit. Meanwhile, “previously struggling Sun Belt markets are becoming less negative as supply growth slows,” the report states.
Fourteen of the top 30 metros recorded negative year-over-year rent growth in September, led by Austin, Texas; Houston; Denver; Tampa, Fla.; and Boston.
The total occupancy rate has risen 50 basis points since January, signaling that new units in the lease-up phase are being filled.
History suggests that the upcoming quarter will put the market to the test; the average advertised rent declined by an average of $7 during Q4 over the past four years. Economic volatility poses a risk. But “if rents remain near current levels through year-end, annual growth could finish above 1%, a meaningful improvement from recent years,” the Yardi Matrix report says.
Get the latest updates on supply, demand, demographics, occupancy and other key forces driving the U.S. multifamily market in the Yardi Matrix Multifamily National Report for September 2026.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, single-family rentals/ build to rent, affordable housing, student housing, self storage, office, industrial, retail and vacant land property types. Email [email protected], call (480) 663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
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